Yield Curve

Executive Summary High profile economists Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard have recently cast doubt on the Federal Reserve’s claim that a soft landing is possible for the US economy. We explore the arguments from both sides of the debate and conclude that the economic data will likely…

Executive Summary Government bond yields worldwide are falling due to fears of a global recession that will lead to monetary easing in 2023. This pricing is too optimistic with inflation likely to remain well above central bank targets next year. Even though US real GDP contracted modestly in…

Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish? Are Expectations Too Dovish…

Executive Summary China's Unemployment Questions From The Road…

Executive Summary Bond investors can’t seem to decide whether the US economy is in the midst of an inflationary boom or hurtling toward recession. Our sense is that, while US economic growth is clearly slowing, we don’t see the unemployment rate rising enough for the Fed to abandon its…

Executive Summary Our recommended model bond portfolio outperformed its custom benchmark index by +24bps in Q2/2022, improving the year-to-date outperformance to a solid +72bps. The Q2 outperformance came entirely from the credit side of the portfolio (+35bps), led by underweights to US…

Highlights Chart 1Are Expectations Too Dovish? Are Expectations Too Dovish…

Executive Summary Calculating Trend Inflation Calculating Trend Inflation…

Executive Summary Does Powell Need To Channel His Inner Volcker…

Executive Summary Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields Competing Forces On Global Bond Yields…