Valuations
Highlights Economic data suggest the current business cycle in China has not yet reached a bottom. Stimulus measures have not been forceful enough to fully offset a slowing domestic economy and weakening global demand. With possibly more U.S. tariffs to…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Recession odds continue to tick higher, according to the NY Fed’s probability of recession model, at a time when global growth is waning, U.S. profit growth is contracting and the non-financial ex-tech corporate balance sheet…
Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models are not sending any strong signals at the moment. That means the balance of forces could tilt the greenback in either way, in what appears to be a stalemate for the U.S. dollar so far. We are…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Rising lumber prices, melting interest rates and profit-augmenting industry productivity gains all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish the S&P home improvement retail (HIR) index. Poor revenue growth prospects…
Highlights We update our long-range forecasts of returns from a range of asset classes – equities, bonds, alternatives, and currencies – and make some refinements to the methodologies we used in our last report in November 2017. We add coverage of U.K.,…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Melting inflation expectations, widening relative indebtedness, expensive adjusted relative valuations, high odds of a further drop in relative profit margins and the high-octane small cap status all signal that large caps…
Highlights As long as the global long bond yield stays near 2 percent or below, European equities will end the year at broadly the same level as now… …but they will experience a dip of at least 4-5 percent along the way. All central banks have pivoted to…
Highlights The report reviews our framework for predicting broad market earnings in China based on the experience of the past decade, and documents the relationship between sector earnings and broad market earnings for both the investable and domestic…
Highlights It remains too early to put on fresh pro-cyclical trades, but the Federal Reserve’s dovish shift is a positive development at the margin. As the market fights a tug of war between weak fundamentals and easier monetary policy, bigger gains are…
Highlights Falling Yields: There have been three main drivers of the latest decline in global bond yields: slower global growth, softer inflation expectations and increased safe-haven demand for bonds given the intensifying U.S.-China trade conflict. The…