Special Report

Executive Summary Indian Voter’s Economic Miseries Are Ascendant  India has a strong strategic geopolitical position but is likely to face turbulence in the short term. This is because India remains expensive, and investors…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary EUR/JPY And The DXY: Unsustainable Gap  Three interrelated themes are likely to play out by the end of 2022 – peak Fed hawkishness,…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, the US Bond Strategy service is hosting its Quarterly Webcast (May 17 at 9:00 AM EDT, 14:00 PM BST, 15:00 PM CEST and May 18 at 9:00 HKT, 11:00 AEST). In addition, we are sending this Quarterly Chartpack that…

Executive Summary The Fed offered more explicit near-term forward rate guidance at its meeting last week. This guidance will reduce yield volatility at the front-end of the curve during the next few months. We expect the Fed to…

Special Report

Highlights All four of our US Equity indicators are currently pointing in a bearish direction. Our Monetary Indicator has fallen to a three decade low, our Technical Indicator has broken into negative territory, our Valuation Indicator…

Executive Summary A housing slowdown has begun and it will proceed in three stages. First, rising mortgage rates will lead to slowing demand. Second, weak demand will push inventories higher and cause home prices to decelerate.…

Special Report

Executive Summary Spreads Near 2017-19 Average  The main indicators that determine corporate bond performance are valuation, the cyclical/monetary environment and corporate balance sheet health. US corporate bond valuation…

Special Report

Highlights There is no evidence of a decline in US corporate credit or bank lending spreads over the past few decades, meaning that any excess savings effect structurally depressing interest rates is occurring in the Treasury market. We…

Executive Summary Table 1Equity Capitulation Scorecard  We have put together a framework to capture the extent to which recent economic and political developments have been priced in by the equity market.  It has seven…

Executive Summary Ebbing Stagflation Fear Will Prompt Rerating  European inflation will rise further before peaking this summer. Core CPI will reach between 2.8% and 3.2% by year-end before receding. The combination of…