Valuations
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2023.
US domestic politics, hypo-globalization, and Great Power Competition favor a revival of US manufacturing capacity. The industrial sector will benefit from the attempt to rebuild US manufacturing. Go long physical infrastructure and defense stocks. Find opportunities to take a long position on the universe versus the metaverse.
This report considers the outlook for the US corporate credit cycle based on a suite of economic, monetary and corporate health indicators. We conclude that both the default rate and US corporate bond spreads will grind higher during the next 6-12 months.
It is easy to conclude that European equities are attractively valued by looking at multiples; however, a method rooted in fundamentals is essential to find out which bourses are genuinely cheap.
This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a prolonged period.
From a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a bounce. In this report, we review various indicators to gauge the magnitude and duration of this rally. We also recommend two new trades: sell the gold/silver ratio at 90 and EUR/SEK at 11.30.
In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.
In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.
The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.
The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we review the most recent macroeconomic, geopolitical, and equity market developments, and do our best to separate facts and data from sentiment and conjecture. We conclude that there are many challenges ahead and equities are not in a clear yet. We recommend investors add small positions in areas of the market that benefit from rate stabilization while maintaining an overall defensive stance.