This week’s report considers the risk that inflation will be stickier than we anticipate, and looks at what a fair value for the 10-year Treasury yield might be in a scenario where the Fed keeps the policy rate on hold for a…

From a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a bounce. In this report, we review various indicators to gauge the magnitude and duration of this rally. We also recommend two new trades: sell the gold/silver ratio at 90 and EUR/…

In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.

In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.

The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.

The most important question investors need to answer is whether this is the right time to shift the portfolio to a more aggressive and cyclical stance now that the end of the hiking cycle is in sight. To answer this question, we…

Special Report

In Part I of a long-term series on currency valuations, we show that a simple PPP model has a good track record of predicting long-term currency returns (over 3-to-5 years).

This insight presents an outlook on USD-Denominated Emerging Market Bonds.

The Fed will respond to December’s CPI report by downshifting to a 25 bps hike pace next month. We anticipate two more 25 bps hikes before the Fed goes on hold.

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro,…