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Special Report We expect the US economy to slow and potentially downshift into a recession sometime in 2024, as tighter monetary policy weighs on consumers and businesses. In addition, (geo)political tensions may increase market volatility. The…
  It’s no secret that a handful of mega caps have been driving markets in 2023, masking a somewhat lackluster year for equities. In fact, on an equal-weighted basis, markets gave up nearly all their YTD gains by the end of…
Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.
The US has the Magnificent Seven, Europe has the Magic Eight. What drives the performance of those eight stocks crucial to the European market?
Special Report Investors should not get their hopes up about the Biden-Xi summit. Wait to see if a new ruling party is elected in Taiwan before downgrading geopolitical risk in the Taiwan Strait. US-China strategic détente is possible but neither…
Special Report This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.
  Analyzing the long/short performance of the Equity Analyzer Composite Factors gives insight into both what has been driving US large cap markets and how those drivers have evolved over the course of the year. The results…
  US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small…
  The Magnificent Seven constitute 26.7% of the S&P 500 and are the cohort responsible for the majority of S&P 500 returns this year. Fundamentals, and, specifically, the profitability of the group are behind the strong…
This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation.