United States
The November ISM Services PMI missed expectations, declining to 52.1 from 56 in October. All subcomponents declined, with new orders falling from 57.4 to 53.7. Employment also weakened but remains in expansion, while price pressures were roughly unchanged. …
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a modestly growing economy imbued with post-election optimism, while highlighting some caution about employment. The latest Beige Book is in line with other sentiment indicators showing modest growth but increased…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists published their monthly tactical asset allocation report and foresee a change of trend for 2025. “Thin is back in” for government budgets, growth, and valuations. The post-COVID recovery was marked by government…
Job openings beat expectations in October, increasing to 7.74m from 7.44m in September. The details of the JOLTS report were mixed, however. Hires ticked down, driven by interest rate-sensitive sectors. Outside of hires, the rest of the report had a more…
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.
The November ISM Manufacturing index beat expectations, increasing to 48.4 from 46.5 in October. The improvement was partly driven by the new orders component, which increased to 50.4 from 47.1. Price pressures moderated. The underlying details of…
November trading was centered around the US election and its aftermath. US assets led the way, with US equities significantly outperforming their global counterparts. The US dollar strengthened considerably against both DM and EM currencies. Investment-grade…
As 2024 closes out a busy electoral calendar for North America, our Geopolitical strategists look at Canada, where an election will be held by October 2025. Canada is poised for a likely change in leadership next year. The next government will…
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy team evaluated the impact of president-elect Trump’s policies on commodity markets. Trump’s energy policies, while promoting increased domestic oil production, are unlikely to drive immediate growth in US crude output.…