United States
Steepeners remain the right trade under a Warsh-led Fed. President Trump announced his intention to nominate former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Despite concerns about Fed independence during the process, Warsh is a conventional candidate.…
Our Bank Credit Analyst colleagues see an increasingly asymmetric risk profile for global equities, as technology expectations hinge on continued exponential progress in AI models. Expectations for tech earnings, semiconductor demand, and US data center…
S&P 500: Cautious Optimism?
…
Resilient US consumption masks rising financial stress in the lower half of a K-shaped economy. Incomes have been flat since the summer, and consumer confidence has deteriorated, particularly around labor-market conditions. While spending has held up, it has…
The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year.
Maintain a long-duration stance as the Fed moves to wait-and-see while downside growth risks build. The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% following three consecutive rate cuts. It signaled no urgency to cut again with only Governors Miran and Waller dissenting in…
Our US and Geopolitical strategists view US social unrest and a government shutdown as having only fleeting market implications. Checks and balances in the US political system are underrated, with institutions, the economy, and financial markets acting as a…
Checks and balances in the US political system are underrated. Social unrest and government shutdown will have fleeting market implications.
Stay long duration as weakening consumption and labor-market perceptions point to further Fed cuts. The January Conference Board survey missed estimates, with the headline index dropping to 84.5 from 94.2. The decline was driven by a weaker assessment of both…
US manufacturing indicators point to stabilizing yet muted growth. US November manufacturing orders beat expectations. New orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.7% m/m, accelerating from a 0.3% increase in October, while shipments…