United States
Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.
The stimulus measures driving the post-COVID expansion were beginning to wane after five years and pointing the economy in the direction of an organically occurring recession. Now that DOGE and the multi-front trade war have sped up the timetable, we reiterate our risk-off recommendations.
This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
This week, our three screeners cover: Equity plays in Low Vol & Low Beta outside the US; Chinese stocks; and stocks that are buys according to the PEG ratio.
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
