United States
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.
The sharp drop in March’s NFIB survey reinforces our defensive asset allocation, as small business sentiment weakens amid rising policy uncertainty. We remain overweight government bonds and underweight risk assets, while tactically shorting the January 2026…
USD/CNY’s break above 7.3 signals more downside is in store for the yuan, supporting short high-beta FX and long CHF and JPY positions. The CNY has weakened in 2025 even as the US dollar has depreciated against most major currencies and gold. USD/CNY…
Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.
Our Commodities strategists remain defensively positioned, recommending a long gold versus oil and copper trade over a cyclical timeframe. While gold may correct near term, it still offers safe-haven appeal in the face of rising policy uncertainty.Silver is…
Sell The Rip?
Sell The Rip?
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President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions to countries that are negotiating, which he will showcase as proofs of his successful trade policy. While he may backpedal on his tariffs on other countries, China is not likely to receive the same treatment due to the US-China strategic competition.