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United States

Tariff Distortions Mask Underlying US Growth Weakness
The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and contracted -0.3% annualized, led by a sharp slowdown in net exports. Consumption slid to 1.8% from 4.0%, reflecting falling consumer…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Conference Board Survey Flags Labor Market Softening
The April Conference Board survey adds to signs of labor market softening, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. The Consumer Confidence index fell for the fifth consecutive month to 86.0 from 92.9. Expectations plunged to their lowest since 2011.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Trade War Shield: The Cybersecurity Industry

Cybersecurity is a strategic investment theme, which looks particularly interesting in light of the trade war and heightened geopolitical tensions. It is less exposed to tariffs than other industries and, if anything, benefits from geopolitical tensions as customers seek protection from international cyberattacks and cybercrime. The industry’s fundamentals are improving, while valuations are moderating. A recent pullback presents an attractive entry point into the theme. 

US Equity Strategy, US Political Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Rishabh Shah
Bunds, The Buck, And The Battle For Safe-Haven Status
Our European Investment strategists maintain a defensive stance. Favor bunds as an emerging safe-haven complement to US Treasurys and a value tilt in equities. While the dollar and US fixed income remain the global anchor, EUR/USD bullishness has become…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tariffs Spark Cost-Push Inflation… But No COVID Replay Yet
The April Dallas Fed Manufacturing survey adds to recent stagflationary signals, reinforcing our preference for gold over industrial commodities. The index plunged to -35.8 from -16.3 in March, with activity measures deteriorating and price pressures…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Soft Data Surprise Downturn Flags Growing Recession Risk
The collapse in soft data points to rising recession risks, but markets are still only priced for a mild slowdown, reinforcing our defensive positioning. As policy uncertainty and market volatility surged, consumers and businesses signaled plans to delay…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Bunds, The Buck, And The Battle For Safe-Haven Status

Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
The Equity Bottom Is Not In
COTW COTW …
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
BCA House View: Bracing For Recession And Rising Stagflation Risk
BCA’s House View recommends staying underweight stocks versus bonds, even in a stagflationary scenario. The US and global economies are likely to enter a recession this year unless tariffs are swiftly reversed or meaningful fiscal stimulus is enacted. The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tracking The “Sell America” Trade

US Treasuries typically outperform both equities and global government bonds during downturns. Recent political shifts could lessen that outperformance this cycle, but we doubt it will disappear completely.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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