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United States

Robotics is on the cusp of a new, powerful uptrend, powered by reshoring and technological breakthroughs that make robots more capable and affordable.

The equity rally faces two looming threats: Weakening growth expectations and a potential resurgence in rates volatility. Equities are vulnerable to any deterioration in growth sentiment. Economic surprises have turned lower and financial conditions are…

The US economy has held up better so far this year than we had expected. For the time being, investors should remain modestly underweight equities. A more aggressive underweight would be justified only once the “whites of the recession’s eyes” are visible.

For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession. 

1 Second Leg Risk Still in Play Despite TACO Trade Bounce …
Our Counterpoint Strategists see no signs of recession or market fragility but remain skeptical of US superstar stocks. Winners of past tech cycles rarely lead the next, making Web 2.0 firms unlikely beneficiaries of the AI-driven rally. BCA’s Counterpoint…
The May US jobs report reinforces our defensive stance as labor momentum is slowing even if not collapsing. Payrolls rose 139k, beating estimates, but decelerating from a downwardly revised 147k. Two-month revisions cut 95k jobs, again signaling that initial…

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in gold mining stocks, European banks, and US stocks ex-Tech should a recession not be imminent. 

Our Special Reports Unit evaluates whether US inflation is likely to remain structurally elevated. While our base case is for inflation to hover around or modestly above 2% over the long run, there are several risks to that view. Demographics are the most…
The May ISM Services PMI sent a stagflationary signal, reinforcing the case for defensive positioning. The headline index slipped into contraction at 49.9 from 51.6 in April, missing expectations. New orders collapsed to 46.4 from 52.3, while employment edged…