United States

The Fed’s 2025 interest rate projections reveal two camps within the committee. One group looking for no rate cuts this year and another looking for 50-bps of easing. We think the second group’s forecast will turn out to be more accurate.

Even if Iran tries to revive talks, the US has an irresistible opportunity to dismantle its nuclear program. Tactically, investors should favor Treasuries over the S&P, defensive sectors over cyclicals, energy stocks over cyclicals, and US stocks over European stocks in the near term. 

Israel’s attacks on Iran will continue until Iran is forced to strike regional oil supply to get the US to restrain Israel. That may not work. Investors should prepare for a broader economic impact of the conflict. 

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies. 

Investors should hold gold, build up some cash, tactically overweight US equities relative to global, and prepare for at least minor oil supply shocks – possibly major shocks – as the Israel-Iran war escalates.

This week our three screeners explore equity trades in Robotics, European Quality and Technical, and Hong Kong.