United States
Powell’s final Jackson Hole speech signaled a dovish tilt, opening the door to a September cut. The Fed is under pressure to balance unemployment and inflation risks, with the FOMC split between “proactive” doves and “reactive” hawks. Recent data have not…
The AI boom has had less of an impact on the economy than widely believed. This may eventually change, but the risk is that investors grow impatient before it does.
The Philly Fed’s August dip confirms persistent US manufacturing weakness and sends a disinflationary impulse. The index fell to -0.3 from 15.9 in July, with shipments, employment, and new orders all declining, the latter slipping into contraction.…
FOMC minutes showed broad support to hold in July, but the committee remains divided between proactive doves and reactive hawks. “Almost all members” favored leaving the funds rate unchanged, though two dissented for an immediate 25 bps cut. Doves want…
US housing data remain weak, reinforcing a fragile growth backdrop and the need for equity downside protection. July housing starts rose 5.2% m/m (annualized), but building permits fell 2.8% following a small June decline. The August NAHB Housing Market…
Trade tensions briefly broke the USD-rates link, but the dollar will remain a countercyclical currency for the near future. A key 2025 trend has been USD depreciation, driven by foreign investors reducing exposure to US assets. At the peak of stress,…
The surprisingly positive August Empire State Manufacturing survey conceals growth headwinds. The headline index rose to 11.9 in August from 5.5 in July, well above estimates. But the report showed a split between current conditions, which drive the…
Retail sales and consumer sentiment data point to slowing underlying momentum despite headline resilience. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, below estimates and decelerating from 0.9% in June. The control group beat estimates at 0.5% but also slowed.…
Peter Berezin estimates the probability of a US recession over the next 12 months is 60%. But in the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, the majority of BCA clients disagree and see the risk as less than 50%. Only 25%…
The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.