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United States

A Sustained Rebound?
Results of the US Conference Board’s latest quarterly survey show an improvement in CEO Confidence in Q1. The share of CEOs reporting better economic conditions versus six months ago increased by 11 percentage points to 16% while the share of those indicating…
Daily Insights
The US Credit Cycle: The Frog Is In The Pot
Special Report

This report considers the outlook for the US corporate credit cycle based on a suite of economic, monetary and corporate health indicators. We conclude that both the default rate and US corporate bond spreads will grind higher during the next 6-12 months.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
In Search Of Fair Value
Special Report

It is easy to conclude that European equities are attractively valued by looking at multiples; however, a method rooted in fundamentals is essential to find out which bourses are genuinely cheap.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
US PCE Inflation And Personal Spending Accelerate
The January Personal Income and Outlays report delivered a positive signal about consumption, corroborating the signal from the CPI, employment and retail sales reports released earlier this month. The 0.6% m/m increase in personal income is an acceleration…
Daily Insights
Takeaways From The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate
The latest reading from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimates annualized US real GDP growth of 2.7% in Q1 2023. This is a significant improvement from its initial 0.7% estimate at the end of January. The latest upbeat reading reflects the consistent flow…
Daily Insights
US Q4 2022 Earnings: Sector Analysis
In a summer 2022 report, our colleagues in BCA Research’s Equity Analyzer service examined the one-day forward returns of stocks after an earnings release and found that firms that beat on both earnings and revenue tended to outperform their peers, while…
Daily Insights
How To Spot An Equity Market Bottom
The indicators that BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service has identified as reliable guides to bear market troughs do not suggest it is time to overweight equities in a multi-asset portfolio. This has been a difficult 12 months for investors:…
Daily Insights
A Bear Market Compass: How To Spot An Equity Market Bottom
Special Report

We analyzed US bear markets since 1954 to identify reliable indicators for distinguishing new equity bull markets from bear market rallies. Our checklist of indicators does not suggest it is time to overweight equities in a multi-asset portfolio. Remain underweight on equities, overweight on fixed income, and neutral on cash.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Delivers Positive Surprise
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a summary statistic of all the important US economic data releases over the past month. The index firmed to 0.23 in January from an upwardly revised -0.46 in December. Importantly, the January figure – which…
Daily Insights
US Housing Recessions Are The ‘Canary In The Coal Mine’
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the current US housing recession is the canary in the coal mine for an economic recession that starts in 2023. Quietly and off most people’s radar screens, US residential fixed investment (home building)…
Daily Insights

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