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The October ISM Manufacturing survey missed expectations, signaling sluggish growth and easing price pressures. The index slipped to 48.7 from 49.1, contracting for the eight consecutive month, driven by weaker production and lower inventories. The decline…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists see no immediate red flags for the bull market and recommend staying overweight equities and fixed income. The AI capex cycle remains intact. Equity distributions are exceeding issuance, and rising ROIC suggests the…

Investor reaction to Meta’s GenAI is an admonition against overspending, rather than a sign of a fraying GenAI rally. Other hyperscalers’ investments are driven by buoyant demand and remain profitable. With valuations stretched and many of the positives priced in, market consolidation is likely. We are decreasing portfolio beta.

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

The filibuster is likely to survive, limiting the long-term policy impact of the current government shutdown. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical and US Political Strategist. Despite President Trump’s call to repeal the…

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to position for the next moves across FX and fixed income.

The US and China announced a one-year trade truce, but differences remain too wide for a lasting deal. The agreement includes a pause on rare-earth restrictions, allowances for blacklisted Chinese firms to import chips through subsidiaries, and modest…

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% and announced QT will end December 1, signaling modest easing but no December cut commitment. The decision matched expectations, with dovish (Gov. Miran, for a 50 bps cut) and hawkish (Pres. Schmid, for no cut)…
The October Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey beat estimates but fell slightly, showing stable current conditions and softer expectations. The headline declined to 94.6 from an upwardly revised 95.6. Consumers’ assessment of their present situation…