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United States

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2024 Key Views: The End Of Eras
Special Report

We expect the US economy to slow and potentially downshift into a recession sometime in 2024, as tighter monetary policy weighs on consumers and businesses. In addition, (geo)political tensions may increase market volatility. The risk/return for US equities is unfavorable. We recommend that our clients reduce portfolio beta and increase allocations to defensives and quality growth.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
November Survey Results: Bracing For Recession
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the timing of the next US recession, the Fed, and concerns for the global economy in 2024. On the US economic outlook, nearly all respondents…
Daily Insights
S&P 500 Sectors Are Churning Beneath The Surface
The S&P 500 closed at a fresh year-to-date high on Friday, breaking slightly above its late-July top. The brisk rally since late-October erased all the losses of the prior three months. However, the sector performance has shifted over the course of the…
Daily Insights
Biden: From Dove, To Duck, To Hawk?
President Joe Biden’s average approval rating fell to 39.9% on December 3, while his disapproval rating rose to 55.4%. This polling is extremely dangerous for the president. He lags former President Donald Trump by 2% in average head-to-head polling for the…
Daily Insights
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Complacency In Credit Markets

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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2024 Key Views: Suspended Animation
Special Report

We enter 2024 as we were across the last four months of 2023, tactically equal weight across the board until the S&P 500 rally is complete and we gain a better entry point for underweighting equities and overweighting fixed income.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Sketching Out A Near-Term Trading Range For Bond Yields

Treasury yields will sketch out a range between now and Q1 2024, with the upside determined by inflation and the downside determined by labor markets.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US ISM Disappoints In November
The US ISM PMI sent a slightly negative signal about US manufacturing conditions in November. The headline index came in unchanged at 46.7, which suggests that the pace of contraction was more pronounced than consensus estimates expecting the PMI to increase…
Daily Insights
The Recession That Never Came?
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Tight Policy Will Eventually Trigger Recession

Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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