United States
The November Philadelphia Fed survey missed expectations, showing manufacturing activity remains subdued with little momentum. Although the headline index rose to -1.7 from -12.8, new orders and shipments both slipped into contraction. Employment and hours…
The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.
The October FOMC minutes underscored deep divisions over the Fed’s next move, reinforcing expectations for a December hold but keeping the easing bias intact. The 10–2 vote for a 25 bps cut included dissents on both sides (Governor Miran for a 50 bps move and…
Recent Fedspeak reinforced the message from the last FOMC meeting, tempering December cut expectations but leaving the door open for more easing next year. The labor market remains the swing factor for upcoming decisions. Kansas City Fed President Schmid, who…
Our Counterpoint strategists recommend neutral equity exposure and underweight duration, warning that a market crash driven by fragility could drive a recession in 2026–27. A major, underappreciated structural development is the post-pandemic decline in older…
The November Empire Manufacturing survey beat expectations, rising to 18.7 from 10.7, its fourth positive reading in five months. Both new orders and shipments increased and signaled solid activity, while the employment index ticked up to 6.6. Price pressures…
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on equities but are watching labor market signals closely, as emerging softness could pose a risk to earnings and sentiment. With over 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 results, concerns around…
Tariffs are fading in importance as companies successfully mitigate cost pressures and preserve profitability. The recent wave of high-profile layoffs is more concerning, but there does not appear to be a systemic reason behind the announcements. However, emerging labor market softness could pose a major risk for equities. We remain vigilant.
The S&P500 has fallen by 2% from its peak, but BCA clients see this as little more than a blip. In the latest weekly poll on the Have Your Say section of BCA's website, we asked our clients whether the recent stock market softness is the start of a bear…
Our Global Investment strategists see the AI boom tracking historical capex bubbles and expect it to peak within the next 6 to 12 months. Drawing lessons from the railway, electrification, internet, and oil booms, they warn that investment manias tend to…