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United States

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How Returning Workers Saved The US Economy… For Now

The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher unemployment. Or, not cut rates early and go the final mile to 2 percent price inflation, at the risk of higher unemployment. We discuss which way the Fed is likely to tilt, and the investment implications. Plus: China is oversold while Japan is overbought.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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How To Invest In The Nuclear Renaissance?

This report presents the main ways to invest in the Nuclear Renaissance; from exposure to physical uranium to equity plays alongside or outside the nuclear fuel cycle.

BCA Special Reports by Jeremie Peloso
US Consumer Confidence Disappoints In February
The US Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence release surprised to the downside. The index decreased to 106.7 from a downwardly revised 110.9, disappointing expectations it would improve to 115.0. Consumers’ assessment of both the present situation…
Daily Insights
The Business Cycle Outlook Is A Headwind For Industrials
On the surface, the US durable goods report delivered a negative surprise on Tuesday. The 6.1% m/m drop in new orders in January fell below expectations and the December figure was revised down to 0.3% m/m from 0.0% m/m.   However, the details of the…
Daily Insights
A Meaningful Revival In US Capex Intentions?
Monday’s release of the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index corroborates the signal from other regional Fed surveys that manufacturing conditions are picking up in the US. The headline Current General Business Activity index jumped from -27.4 to -11.3 in…
Daily Insights
A Whiff Of Bad Breadth
At the headline level, US equity indices are on a tear with the S&P 500 forging a fresh all-time high last week and the NASDAQ on the verge of overtaking its November 2021 record close. However, the rally remains quite narrow, led by only a few stocks. As…
Daily Insights
What To Make Of 2023Q4 Earnings Discrepancies?
The 2023Q4 earnings season is drawing to a close with over 80% of S&P500 companies having reported results. However, the three main providers of aggregate earnings data are posting significant variations. Indeed, IBES Refinitiv reports a robust 9% y/y…
Daily Insights
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US Presidential And Senate Elections Model Update

Though there are some positive signals recently for the Democrats, it is still hard for them to close the gap and turn things around. The Republicans are still favored to win the Senate as well as the House in the upcoming election.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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A Checklist For Extending Duration In The US Bond Market

The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
The US Dollar Is The Most Overvalued Currency In The G20
In a recent Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists update their long-term fair-value models for the real effective exchange rate. The model aims to capture deviations from the long-term drivers of a currency, such as relative productivity trends…
Daily Insights

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