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United States

Making Money In The Late Phases Of An Economic Expansion
We continue to expect a recession by early 2025 but assign non-trivial odds to growth surprising to the upside until then. Our Global Investment Strategy team thus recommends investors adopt a barbell equity strategy as a hedge for the second half of 2024,…
Daily Insights
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Fed Keeps September On The Table

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Fed Signals One Cut This Year, Four In 2025
In a widely expected move, the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged within a 5.25%-5.5% range following its June 11-12 meeting. However, the median dots have moved higher for both 2024 and 2025. The median FOMC member now expects to cut only once this year…
Daily Insights
Super Core CPI Declines For First Time In Over 3 Years
US CPI inflation continued to ease in May. Headline CPI stagnated on a month-on-month basis (3.3% y/y) in May, down from April’s 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y), and below expectations of a more muted rate of growth. Core CPI also slowed more than expected, rising…
Daily Insights
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Missing Older Workers Give The Fed A Lingering Headache

1 in 17 older Americans workers have gone missing either through ‘excess retirements’ or ‘excess mortality’. The consequent dislocation of the labour market means that the Fed’s work is not yet done. We go through some investment implications. Plus: the China and Japan rallies are exhausted.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Fade The Signal From The NFIB Survey
The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism (SBO) Index came in at 90.5 in May, above expectations that it would remain flat at 89.7. Despite the upside surprise, the Russell 2000 index closed down 40 basis points on Tuesday while the S&P 500 gained 30 bps to…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Credit Growth Disappoints In April
Total consumer credit rose by USD 6.4 billion in April (to USD 5,053 billion outstanding), from a USD 1.1 billion decrease in March (a large downward revision to the USD 6.3 billion rise initially reported) and significantly shy of expectations for a USD 10…
Daily Insights
Underweight TSX Despite Commodity, Currency And Valuation Tailwinds
A decade of Canadian equity underperformance has led to a historical discount relative to the S&P 500. Sector composition largely explains this underperformance. Banks and natural resources stocks are overrepresented in the TSX while the US stock market…
Daily Insights
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The One About Energy And Aerospace & Defense

We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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Are We There Yet?

Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a recession before year end, it is not yet certain and we remain tactically neutral.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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