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United States

Trade Wars Don’t Work In A Multipolar World
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, there are two main pressure points that the US can utilize against China. First, the US consumer market is the largest in the world. Despite having diversified away from the US, it remains a very…
Daily Insights
ISM Manufacturing PMI Extends Contraction Streak
The ISM manufacturing PMI improved in August, from 46.8 to 47.2, but remained below expectations of 47.5 and extended a five-month contraction streak. Production declined at a faster pace (45.9 to 44.8) and both new orders and new export orders contracted…
Daily Insights
Fade Any 2Y/10Y Un-Inversion
The 2Y/10Y segment of the yield curve is flirting with un-inversion. Aggressive rate cut expectations have largely driven its steepening, with the 2-year Treasury yields falling nearly 100 bps over the past couple of months. Our colleagues at the Bank…
Daily Insights
US GDI Lags GDP In This Cycle
Significantly stronger-than-expected consumer spending growth led to an upward revision to US GDP growth in Q2. That said, gross domestic income (GDI) has been lagging behind GDP. It increased 1.3% q/q in Q2, at the same rate as in Q1, and well below Q2’s…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Is The Fed Right To Declare Mission Accomplished?

Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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Chartbook

Our annual end-of-summer chartbook report traces the labor market deterioration that led us to downgrade equities at the beginning of August. It also highlights the soft-landing expectations that the credit and equity markets are discounting. We like the risk-reward profile of our newly defensive stance.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Will Democrats Win Another Full Sweep? Not Likely

Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors do not need to worry about corporate tax hikes.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
Savings Rate At 16-Year Low Casts Doubt On US Spending’s Sustainability
US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a 16-year-low of 2.9%. …
Daily Insights
What Could Durably Reverse US Equities’ Relative Outperformance?
According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring substantially less global ex-US…
Daily Insights
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It Is Time To Go Long The Greenback

This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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