Ukraine
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and Iran. Despite the mainstream media narrative, the Xi-…
Executive Summary With the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis materializing, the odds of a major war between the world’s great powers have gone up. Our decision trees suggest the odds are around 20%, or double where they stood from the Russian war in Ukraine alone. The world is playing “Russian…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator
China: GeoRisk Indicator…
Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas
Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas…
Executive Summary Natural Gas Markets Eerily Quiet
Natgas Markets: The Eye Of The Storm…
Executive Summary EU Embargoes Russian Oil
Energy Cutoff Continues (GeoRisk Update…
Are Ukrainian USD Bonds A Buy…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over
Goldilocks: A Skeptical Q&A…
Executive Summary The surge in food prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine will drive EM headline inflation higher, given more of individuals' incomes in these economies are spent on food. Economies in the MENA will remain at risk for higher food prices, given their reliance…
Executive Summary The US Still Dominates Economic Output
The US Still Dominates Economic Output…