US Treasury yields require a higher premium for both geopolitical risk and inflation risk, but higher bond yields are not necessarily bad for stocks.

With the US unemployment rate and interest rate close to the ‘neutral’ u-star and r-star respectively, further Fed rate cuts risk pushing up inflation and long-term inflation expectations. This is bad for bonds but good for stocks.…

Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.

Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…

September’s weak consumer spending data challenge the K-shaped recovery narrative and suggest that spending will slow to match already-weak employment growth.

September job gains topped modest expectations, but year-over-year payrolls growth appears to have fallen below stall speed. We remain concerned about US activity.

The odds have risen that we have reached a “Metaverse Moment” – a situation where investors punish AI companies for increasing capex. This warrants greater caution towards AI stocks specifically, and the broader S&P 500 more…

The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.

Tariffs are fading in importance as companies successfully mitigate cost pressures and preserve profitability. The recent wave of high-profile layoffs is more concerning, but there does not appear to be a systemic reason behind the…