US Election
President Trump is raising tariffs again, now through 2027 – and more countries will retaliate this time. While markets can climb over “Liberation Day 2.0,” investors should be wary of today's aggressive policies engendering drastic policy change in 2028.
Left-wing populism will likely prevail within the Democratic Party and inspire large tax hikes in 2029. But the US does not face a socialist takeover.
As part of our new and improved GeoMacro service, please find attached our Global Risk Outlook, a quarterly digest of scenario probabilities and estimated market impacts for all the major geopolitical topics in the world today.
Midterms matter but geopolitics are the main risk this year. Markets will eventually refocus on geopolitical and inflation risks, raising Fed rate hike odds and supporting US dollar and stocks over global counterparts this year.
Aggregate Senate betting market pricing appears too pessimistic on Democrats relative to state-level odds and early polling, suggesting a potential mispricing and a relatively sanguine attitude towards the still-unresolved conflict in Iran and its aftermath.