US Dollar

In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.

In this report, we explore what a new BRICS+ union means for the dollar over the next 6-to-9 months.

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.

The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US tech, it is French luxuries. No other sector can compare with French luxuries’ massive and sustained pricing power. The risk for French luxuries is not a China slowdown, the risk is that the structural increase in super-wealth comes to an end. If anything though, the coming disruption from generative AI will boost super-wealth. Ironically therefore, the best investment play on generative AI might be French luxuries.

A global portfolio is likely to return only 5.3% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.7% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. Our total return methodology remains consistent with previous editions, with changes limited to the Alternatives section.