This month's Special Report reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should…
This week, we present five of the more interesting yield curve trades in the Developed Markets for the latter half of 2016.
As the sole shock absorber left in the global economy, FX markets will grow more volatile. The currency market's reaction to the recent Fed minutes exemplifies this phenomenon. Despite its sores and blisters, the U.S. economy wins…
The Fed is accentuating bearish dynamics for the dollar over the next three to six months. The upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China provides Chinese authorities with an incentive to ramp up stimulus this year.…
Approaching the referendum on EU membership, what are the prospects for the U.K. economy and financial markets?
The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…
Reflation continues to dictate short-term market moves. Behind this sugar-high, the global economic backdrop remains poor. Commodity currencies can rally for a few more weeks, but once markets refocus on Chinese and EM core…
The dollar countertrend move has more downside, but beyond the next few months, the dollar remains in a cyclical bull market. Improvements in global growth, even if temporary, are likely to lift non-U.S. rates more than U.S. ones.…
Japan is in a liquidity trap: bad economic news is good for the yen while good economic news is bad for the yen. Chinese reflation could help risk assets in the months ahead, but poor EM fundamentals will reassert themselves later…