Government bond markets have likely overestimated the degree of policy dovishness that is likely to be delivered by the major central banks in the next few months.
In July, the model outperformed both global equities and the S&P 500 in local-currency terms, while underperforming in U.S. dollar terms. For the monthly of August, the model made no changes to overall risk exposure.
The U.S. and the global economies are improving. A synchronized upswing normally trumps the Fed in determining the path for the dollar. U.S. inflation expectations are likely to rise relative to the rest of the world, weighing on the…
The recent rally in risk assets is walking a very fine line. If the Fed turns more hawkish, or U.S. growth slows, it could fall over.
A collection of 10 important charts to monitor closely through the summer months.
The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.
In successful investment analysis "less is more, and usually much more effective."
Over the past 12 months, the yen surged, powered by global deflationary fears. Japanese monetary conditions massively tightened, causing additional yen strength, creating a vicious circle. Policymakers will respond, but markets are…