Wedged between an improving labor market but icy global conditions, the Fed may be on the verge of conducting a policy mistake. This would be dollar and yen bullish. Commodity and EM currencies should bear the brunt of any pain. The…
We reveal what our most-trusted leading indicators are predicting about the major economies, and end with a provocative conclusion.
In August, the model outperformed the S&P 500 and global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For September, the model increased its allocation to cash and trimmed its exposure to equities.
U.S. inflationary forces remain tame, forcing the Fed to maintain an easy bias. Yet, the global economy is improving. This confluence could weigh on the dollar and boost commodity currencies. The NZD has more upside, but it will lag…
More aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus will be necessary to resuscitate the Japanese economy. While the BoJ's forthcoming review is likely to endorse the current policy stance, there is a good chance that Kuroda will open the…
The euro area's NPL problem is unlikely to be solved quickly, constraining bank profitability and the capacity to lend. There are three important repercussions for investors.
The tailwind of better-than-expected global growth and highly supportive monetary policy has the potential to push global spread product into overshoot territory.
While the BoE and the Fed are increasingly committed to letting inflation expectations rise, the BoJ disappointed once again. The dollar and the pound are likely to experience broad weaknesses, while gold, the euro and commodity…