As expected, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 50bps to 2.25% on Thursday. Three of the nine MPC members preferred a more aggressive 75bp hike, while one member favored a more modest 25bp increase. The BoE noted that…
Cable fell below 1.14 in intra-day trading on Friday (incidentally, the 30th anniversary of Black Wednesday). Though it recovered some of the losses, it ended the week at a 37-year low. New evidence that the UK economy is…
Executive Summary At the margin, the European Union’s proposed €140 billion “windfall profits” tax on electricity providers not using natural gas to generate power will blunt the message markets are sending to…
UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m in July, up from June’s 0.6% m/m decline. A 0.4% m/m increase in services was the main contributor, though production and construction fell 0.3% and 0.8% m/m, respectively. However, July’s GDP…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
UK Gilts have been selling off sharply since the beginning of August. The yield on the 10-year UK government bond is now over 80bps higher than it was at the start of the month. The move has been even more pronounced at the…
The July UK CPI data released on Wednesday showed an acceleration of year-over-year headline inflation into double-digit territory at 10.1%, up from 9.4% in June and beating market expectations. Higher food and energy prices were…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support The softer CPI print in the US boosted growth plays and pushed the DXY index below…
Executive Summary Oil Markets Remain Tight US and Iranian negotiators received an EU proposal for reviving the Iran nuclear deal on Monday, which could return ~ 1mm b/d of oil to markets. The EU’s embargo of…