Highlights Portfolio Strategy Synchronized global growth, a soft U.S. dollar, our resurgent Boom/Bust Indicator and avoidance of a Chinese economic hard landing, are all signaling that it still pays to overweight cyclicals at the…
Overweight Since the beginning of February, the S&P air freight & logistics group has been waylaid by reports that Amazon was exploring its own logistics network. This is not new news; in fact, we wrote about this the last time…
Highlights The German 10-year bund yield rising to 1%, or the U.S. 10-year T-bond yield rising to 3% would be a trigger to downgrade equities and upgrade bonds... ...especially as the blue sky expectations for global growth in H1 2018…
Underweight United Airlines spooked the market this week when they announced their plans to grow capacity by 4-6% per year until 2020; the stock fell by 11% that day and took the S&P airlines index down with it. Capacity additions…
Overweight Last week saw some sad news as Hunter Harrison, the CEO of CSX and legendary railroad captain, passed away. While we are overweight the S&P railroads index, we did not upgrade when Mr. Harrison joined CSX and we will not…
Earlier this week, CSX led off railroad Q3 earnings, managing to beat expectations while overcoming hurricanes and derailments. Of particular note was solid pricing gains despite somewhat lagging domestic inflation and CSX-specific…
Underweight While we have turned positive on the broad industrials complex and remain constructive on most transports, we continue to recommend investors avoid the S&P airlines index. A costly price war between the low cost…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Go long industrials/short discretionary. Leading indicators of interest rates, relative sentiment, relative demand and relative exports all signal that industrials stocks will outperform their consumer…