Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging…

US domestic politics, hypo-globalization, and Great Power Competition favor a revival of US manufacturing capacity. The industrial sector will benefit from the attempt to rebuild US manufacturing. Go long physical infrastructure and…

Airlines have staged an impressive recovery this year, exceeding all expectations. While companies are optimistic, we are cautious. Just as pent-up demand for travel will fade, headwinds from slowing growth and high inflation will…

In this week’s report “Adaptive Expectations: Revisiting Our Views”, we concluded that the S&P 500 is unlikely to find a bottom until inflation turns and monetary conditions stabilize, and US equities will follow a…

The US economy is in the midst of an economic growth slowdown, exacerbated by the nascent monetary tightening cycle, a war in Ukraine, and COVID-19 lockdowns in China. To protect our portfolio against the negative economic backdrop, we…

Executive Summary Shanghai Is Extending Lockdowns Due To Exponentially Rising COVID Cases  The economic impact of China’s struggle with another wave of COVID outbreaks is showing up in March’s PMI and high-…

  Following another sell-off, S&P airlines have been regaining some altitude of late despite US Covid cases and hospitalizations rising. The surge in Omicron infections appears to be priced in. Airlines have underperformed S…

Highlights Asian and European natural gas prices will remain well bid as the Northern Hemisphere winter approaches. An upgraded probability of a second La Niña event this winter will keep gas buyers scouring markets for supplies…

  Overweight We are currently overweight the S&P railroads index in anticipation of financial sector liquidity morphing into real economic growth and thus propelling domestic oriented railroad stocks. There is also another…

  Overweight We have been overweight the niche (0.33% of the S&P 500) airlines sector going into the pandemic, and while it has been slow to recover, there is little doubt that soon airline stocks will reclaim their pre-…