Trade / BOP

As the odds of a Trump victory rise, European assets underperform US ones. What would be the immediate impact of a Trump victory on European stocks?

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

In this report, we discuss why we are lifting our US recession probability from 60% to 65% and explain why China’s latest stimulus announcements are welcome, but probably are “too little, too late.”