Trade / BOP

The ECB cut its deposit rate to 2.75%, as was widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde did not provide any fireworks, but the Governing Council’s message was clear: Policy is restrictive, and inflation will fall further. As a result, if we combine our economic forecasts for the Eurozone with Frankfurt’s data dependency, we continue to expect the ECB’s deposit rate to settle below 2%. Consequently, German bond yields have downside, and the euro has yet to bottomed.

We anticipate decisive tariff measures early in Trump’s second term. In this Special Report, we explore how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, U.S. importers, and consumers.

President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?