Martin Barnes and I spent last week visiting clients in Hong Kong and Singapore in celebration of BCA’s 70th anniversary. Martin has been with BCA Research for 32 years and has been a keen observer of market trends for much longer…
Highlights Declining uncertainty over policy, stabilizing growth in China and improvements in international liquidity, all will allow global economic activity to pick up in the months ahead. A weak dollar will reinforce this positive…
Highlights The U.S. and China are moving toward formalizing a trade ceasefire that reduces geopolitical risk in the near term. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is finished – removing a major downside to European assets. Spanish…
Highlights Shifting Trends: The factors that have driven bond yields lower throughout 2019 – slowing growth, rising uncertainty, demand for safe assets and dovish monetary policy expectations – have all started to turn in a…
Highlights Duration: Trade uncertainty has depressed survey measures of economic sentiment, but the hard economic data have been relatively robust. If the trade war starts to calm down during the next two months, as we expect, then the…
Dear Client, In lieu of our regular Weekly Report this week, tomorrow we will be publishing a joint Special Report on the Chinese automobile industry outlook with our Emerging Markets Strategy service, authored by my colleague Ellen…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The trade-weighted U.S. dollar’s appreciation along with the still souring manufacturing data are weighing on SPX profit growth, at a time when heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a looming…
Highlights Geopolitical risks are starting to abate as a result of material constraints influencing policymakers. China needs to ensure its economy bottoms and a debt-deflationary tendency does not take hold. President Trump needs to…