Technology
Overweight (maintain cyclical trailing stop at 27% relative return since inception) The latest ISM services report followed its sibling ISM manufacturing survey lower as we have been expecting, given the leading properties and extreme economic sensitivity…
In late-summer 2010, we published a Special Report overviewing long-term U.S. equity sector relative performance during deflationary periods. Since then, inflation – core PCE deflator to be more specific – only briefly flirted with the Federal Reserve’s 2%…
Remain Cyclically Overweight, But Remove from High-Conviction Overweight List Our 10% stop on the S&P software high-conviction call got triggered and we are obeying it, booking gains and removing this index from the high-conviction overweight…
Continue Playing Defense…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Despite the Fed’s supra natural powers, the deep rooted global growth slowdown will likely win the tug of war versus flush liquidity, especially if the trade war spat stays unresolved and the U.S. dollar remains well bid,…
Housekeeping…
Fade Semi Equipment Strength…
U.S.: Downgrade Semi Equipment To Underweight…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Rising lumber prices, melting interest rates and profit-augmenting industry productivity gains all signal that it no longer pays to be bearish the S&P home improvement retail (HIR) index. Poor revenue growth prospects…
Productivity growth is experiencing a cyclical rebound, but remains structurally weak. The end of the deepening of globalization, statistical hurdles, and the possibility that today’s technological advances may not be as revolutionary as past ones all…