Investors will be disappointed if they buy into the China rally and then Russia escalates the war in Ukraine.
Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.
July data confirm China’s weak growth, with no near-term shift toward meaningful stimulus. New home prices fell 0.31% m/m, retail sales slowed to 3.7% y/y from 4.8%, and industrial production eased. Flooding in July disrupted…
The cost of tariffs is falling on the US consumer, not foreign exporters or US firms.
European sentiment has moderated, pointing to near-term downside risk for a technically-stretched Euro. The August Eurozone ZEW Expectations index fell to 25.1 from 36.1, with Germany’s reading missing estimates, dropping sharply to…
India’s sharp CPI undershoot will bring forward rate cuts, supporting a long on local bonds. Headline CPI fell to 1.55%, well below the RBI’s 2-6% target range, pointing to earlier and deeper easing than markets price. Our…
This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.
US tariffs will not derail the low-inflation economic recovery underway in the Euro Area. Investors should overweight European equities, focusing on parts of the market more insulated from tariffs.
Data received since we began reassessing our bearish stance supported our notion that the economy is not as strong as the investor consensus perceives. But the softness will likely have to intensify in July and August to preserve our…