The Fed is accentuating bearish dynamics for the dollar over the next three to six months. The upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China provides Chinese authorities with an incentive to ramp up stimulus this year.…
Reflation continues to dictate short-term market moves. Behind this sugar-high, the global economic backdrop remains poor. Commodity currencies can rally for a few more weeks, but once markets refocus on Chinese and EM core…
The dollar countertrend move has more downside, but beyond the next few months, the dollar remains in a cyclical bull market. Improvements in global growth, even if temporary, are likely to lift non-U.S. rates more than U.S. ones.…
Japan is in a liquidity trap: bad economic news is good for the yen while good economic news is bad for the yen. Chinese reflation could help risk assets in the months ahead, but poor EM fundamentals will reassert themselves later…
No significant change in allocation was made. Direction wise, weights in Spain and Switzerland were increased slightly at the expense of Netherland and Sweden.
Fed dovishness is weakening the U.S. dollar. As the ECB and BoJ move to the sidelines and the Fed remains reluctant to hike rates, the euro and Japanese yen should continue to recover versus the greenback.
For the month of March, the model outperformed both global and U.S. equities in U.S. dollar terms. For April, the model has further pared back its equity risk exposure, shifting the allocation into cash. While Europe remains the…
The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.
A surprisingly dovish outcome from this week's FOMC meeting has led to broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. The monetary policy divergence supporting the dollar may have peaked.
The euro stopped weakening in March 2015, which coincided with the ECB starting its asset purchases. Since then, the ECB's incremental policies have been unable to push the euro lower. The price action speaks to the resilience of the…