Highlights The blistering dollar rally has mimicked the selloff in U.S. and global bonds. The dollar and bonds may have gotten ahead of themselves. A short-term reversal or a pause in the recent trend is becoming our base-case scenario…

The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…

Highlights Global liquidity conditions are set to tighten in the months ahead. This could add some fire to a dollar rally, especially against EM and commodity currencies. The GBP has become the new anti-dollar, reflected by its…

Special Report

This week, we are reviewing all of our active trades discussed in the last twelve months, which are intended to be an overlay to our recommended fixed income portfolio.

Special Report

In a February Special Report titled "Assessing Fair Value In FX Markets" we introduced a set of long-term valuation models based on various fundamentals. We have updated the results and added KRW, INR, PHP, HKD, CLP and COP to our…

Special Report

Investors are overstating the legal and political constraints to "helicopter money"; The BoJ and BoE have few legal hurdles, whereas the ECB would have to get creative to stay within the existing law; Inflation-phobia in…

Special Report

We extracted the key factors driving currency returns; these variables approximate the dollar, EM spreads, and commodities. Any currency's sensitivity to these factors can be estimated, offering a great degree of flexibility for…

In August, the model outperformed the S&P 500 and global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For September, the model increased its allocation to cash and trimmed its exposure to equities.

U.S. inflationary forces remain tame, forcing the Fed to maintain an easy bias. Yet, the global economy is improving. This confluence could weigh on the dollar and boost commodity currencies. The NZD has more upside, but it will lag…

While the BoE and the Fed are increasingly committed to letting inflation expectations rise, the BoJ disappointed once again. The dollar and the pound are likely to experience broad weaknesses, while gold, the euro and commodity…