Highlights The euro doesn't have the key attributes of a funding or a risk-off currency. This means its behavior is not fixed. While in the past it has behaved as a risk-off currency, this year it has traded as a risk-on one,…

Highlights This week, we are reviewing all our current active trades in our Tactical Overlay. As a reminder, these positions (Table 1) are meant to complement our strategic GFIS Model Fixed Income Portfolio, typically with shorter…

Special Report

Highlights Since the release of our currency hedging report on September 29, 2017,1 we have received an overwhelming positive response from clients around the globe. We thank our clients for their appreciation of our research. Instead…

Special Report

Feature Valuations, whether for currencies, equities, or bonds, are always at the top of the list of the determinants of any asset's long-term performance. This means that after large FX moves like those experienced this year, it…

Highlights The ECB can talk down the euro, but not by much. The central bank has previously expressed comfort with EUR/USD at 1.15. The cyclical and structural direction of EUR/USD is higher... ...because the euro area versus U.S.…

Special Report

Feature Dear client, This week we are publishing a brief Special Report highlighting ten charts that have captured our attention, charts we would like to emphasize before the summer lull ends. We will not be sending a report next…

Highlights Your portfolio cash weighting should be at least in the middle of its range, until the observed volatility of risk assets rises meaningfully from its record low. Cyclically add long SEK/USD to long EUR/USD. Within a…

Highlights The bottom in the dollar will have to wait for clearer signs that U.S. inflation has hit a trough. DXY is unlikely to punch below its May 2016 low. We examine balance of payments dynamics across the G10. This analysis…

Highlights The Fed is behind the curve in raising rates, as is the Bank of Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Swedish Riksbank. In contrast, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and the Swiss…

Highlights The era of divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed is over. Re-convergence has a lot further to go. As the ECB ends its ultra-accommodation, it will also liberate Sweden's Riksbank. Go long Swedish…