Sweden

Highlights U.S.: The Fed remains decidedly neutral, despite market expectations (and White House pressure) for lower U.S. interest rates. Treasury yields are mispriced and should grind higher over the next 6-12 months, led first by inflation expectations and later by a more hawkish Fed. Canada…

Highlights Recent data suggest central bankers remain behind the curve in boosting inflation expectations. Ergo, expect a dovish bias to persist over the next few months. Our thesis remains that global growth is in a volatile bottoming process. However, market focus could temporarily flip…

Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of our country Monitors are now forecasting monetary policy on hold, apart from Australia and New Zealand where looser policy is warranted (Chart of the Week). However, with early leading…

Highlights The deceleration in global growth that began in 2018 is entering a transition phase. The bottoming out process could prove to be volatile, warning against betting the farm too early on pro-cyclical currencies. Tactical short USD bets should initially be played via the euro1 and…

Highlights The U.S. basic balance is the strongest it’s been in decades. However, the White House’s profligacy threatens this positive. The euro area basic balance is also healthy. Now that the European Central Bank has ended its asset purchasing program, aggregate portfolio flows in Europe…

Highlights We always strive to develop new analytical methods to complement our focus on judging currencies based on global liquidity conditions and the business cycle. This week, we introduce a ranking method based strictly on domestic factors: We call it the Aggregate Domestic Attractiveness…

Highlights Excess dollar liquidity is still deteriorating. The U.S. economy’s robustness suggests this trend will continue. Elevated EM-dollar debt and declining dollar liquidity point to lower global growth and a stronger dollar. Despite these cyclical forces, a tactical dollar correction…

Highlights Dear Client, This is the final Global Fixed Income Strategy report for 2018. We will return with our first report of the new year on January 8th, 2019. Our entire team wishes you a very happy holiday season and a prosperous new year. Best regards, Rob Robis, Chief Strategist…

Can Sweden Lead The SPX…