Executive Summary We look at the Ukraine crisis in the broader context of shocks, what we can learn from them, and how we can incorporate them into our strategy for investment, and life in general. Our high-conviction view is that the…

Executive Summary US biotech is trading at its greatest discount to the market. Ever. Much of biotech’s underperformance is due to transient factors: specifically, the sell-off in long-duration bonds; the focus on delivering a…

Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact  The Ukraine crisis is escalating as predicted. We maintain our odds: 65% limited incursion, 10% full-scale invasion, 25% diplomatic de-escalation.…

Executive Summary The recent 26 percent overspend on durable goods constitutes one of the greatest imbalances in economic history. An overspend on goods is corrected by a subsequent underspend; but an underspend on services is not…

Special Report

Executive Summary We back-tested equity strategies based on our rotation framework. They deliver positive excess returns and lower volatility. We also introduce our Excess Returns Rotation Maps, a new investment tool with an…

Executive Summary The Pandemic-Led Surge In E-Commerce Spending Is Reverting Back To Trend  Rising interest rates and a cooling in pandemic-related tech spending will cap the upside for technology shares over the remainder of…

Highlights The selloff in equities since the start of the year marks a long overdue correction rather than the start of a bear market. Stocks often suffer a period of indigestion when bond yields rise suddenly, but usually bounce back…

Highlights The markets are already looking past Omicron. Now they have new worries – the Fed battling inflation. In the past, the Fed moved because of confidence that strong economic growth can withstand rates normalization.…

Highlights In this week’s report we update our Chart Pack, updating familiar charts that underscore our strategic themes and cyclical/tactical views. Social unrest in Kazakhstan points to two of our strategic themes: great power…

Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…