Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging…

Special Report

Over our main 6-12 month investment horizon, valuation has very little ability to predict asset returns. Over longer periods, however, valuation is highly relevant and should be an important part of strategic asset allocation decisions…

In Section I, we audit the market’s “soft landing” narrative in response to a meaningful challenge to our cautious stance from recent financial market developments. We acknowledge that US economic growth was stronger in the first…

Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news…

Special Report

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession…

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator.…

The S&P 500 performance was flat in May if not for the strong performance of a small cohort of mega-caps, aided by exposure to AI. Earnings and sales growth are contracting but analysts expect a rebound into a yearend, which is…