Our Cyclical Indicator Update reveals that a defensive portfolio strategy remains the best bet to navigate the crosscurrents of stagnant profit/economic growth yet abundant global liquidity.
Since downshifting from favoring growth over value to a neutral style bias at the beginning of this year, the growth/value (G/V) ratio has corrected sharply. While this recommendation shift was timely, at issue is whether a major…
Last week's soft employment report reinforced our defensive vs. cyclical portfolio bias, as firms appear to be slowing hiring in response to the broad-based profit squeeze. That is a plus for non-cyclical sectors, as defensive…
Economic disappointment will become the key theme in the second half of the year, driving a return to non-cyclical market leadership and a recovery in the growth vs. value ratio.
A number of factors triggered our downshift from a growth over value bent to a neutral style bias in late-January. Value has outperformed growth in 80% of broad equity bear markets since 1960, and in more than half of economic…
Growth stocks have trounced value indexes over the last few years. The bulk of our style Indicators signal that macro conditions are still tilted in favor of growth. As a reminder, growth indexes almost always move to a premium when…
An oversold bounce may be getting underway, but without a policy assist, it would be a rally to sell. Go to neutral in the growth vs. value trade and beware sub-surface weakness in the consumer discretionary sector.