Spain

Introducing our Special Series to assess where Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain stand today. Stay tuned for more.

The geopolitical backdrop remains negative despite some marginally less negative news. China’s stimulus is not yet large or fast enough to prevent a market riot. Two of our preferred equity regions, ASEAN and Europe, are struggling to outperform. Investors should stay defensive overall.

The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.

The snap election which took place on Sunday resulted in a political deadlock in Spain. No single party has won enough seats to form a government. More importantly, both the left-wing bloc and the right-bloc fell short of the 176-seat majority needed in the 350-seat lower house. Negotiations are taking place as we publish, but neither side can see a clear and straightforward path to form a working government. Spain is heading into a political deadlock.

Spain is holding a general election this Sunday and the country is likely to veer to the right. Will this shift threaten European unity and herald a new period of tensions in the Eurozone?

Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.