Soybeans

Saudi oil policy, like its defense policy, will be more aggressive and less predictable, following Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's apparent nullification of a production "freeze" deal at Doha.

A weaker USD resulting from more dovish forward guidance from the Fed, and evidence of continued production declines in non-OPEC and OPEC countries will continue to buoy oil prices.

The remarkable admission by OPEC's secretary-general, Salem el-Badri, earlier this week that with "any increase in (oil's) price, shale will come immediately and cover any reduction" in output only hints at the larger impact of light-tight-oil (LTO) going forward.

The Fed will upset the rebalancing of oil markets if it misreads the current sell-off as weakness in oil demand.