Software and Services
Upgrade Software To Overweight…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Our conservative dividend growth assumptions especially for the next three years – largely mimicking the GFC experience – result in an SPX 3,000 fair value target. Relative performance already reflects the jump in demand for packaged foods. A firm US dollar and…
Crystallizing Gains…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy It is still early to bottom fish, and trying to catch the proverbial falling knife does not interest us for cyclically oriented capital. Uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus epidemic and its effects on economic and profit growth, and uncertainty with regard to…
Overweight The latest MSFT report was very robust and surprised to the upside on nearly every metric, and helped push the S&P software index to uncharted territory. Nevertheless, we do not want to overstay our welcome and a number of yellow flags compel us to further increase the trailing…
Overweight The S&P software index has gone parabolic. SPX returns are extremely concentrated as we showed on Monday’s Weekly Report, with the S&P software & services GICS2 sector being responsible for 18% of the broad market’s gains since late-2018 (see bar chart below). We are…
Feature The purpose of this Special Report is to identify and provoke a healthy debate on the prevailing investment themes for the 2020s and to speculate on what the key US sector beneficiaries and likely losers may be. Every decade a dominant theme captures investors’ imaginations and morphs…
Every decade a dominant theme captures investors’ imaginations and morphs into a bubble. Massive speculation typically propels the relevant asset class into the stratosphere as investors extrapolate the good times far into the future and go on a buying frenzy. Chart II-1 shows previous manic…
As 2019 draws to a close, we thank you for your ongoing readership and support. We wish you and your loved ones a happy holiday season and all the best for a healthy and prosperous 2020. Highlights We explore the principal risks to our optimistic 2020 outlook. Trade and the 2020 US…
Feature The purpose of this Special Report is to identify and provoke a healthy debate on the prevailing investment themes for the 2020s and to speculate on what the key US sector beneficiaries and likely losers may be. Every decade a dominant theme captures investors’ imaginations and morphs…