Silver

Dear client, In lieu of our regular weekly report next week, we will hold a webcast on Thursday at 10:00 am ET discussing both tactical and strategic currency considerations. The format will be a short presentation, followed by a Q&A session. We look forward to engaging with you. Kind…

Highlights With interest rates near zero around the world, balance sheet policy will become an important driver for currencies. Should the global economy need another dose of monetary stimulus, yield curve control (YCC) and direct financing of governments will increasingly be the policy tool…

Highlights Collective market signals suggest a low but non-negligible probability of a dollar spike due to the coronavirus. Stay long the yen as a portfolio hedge. Short CHF/JPY bets also make sense.  Our limit sell on the gold/silver ratio was triggered at 90. Place a stop at 95, with…

Highlights OPEC 2.0 production discipline and the capital markets’ parsimony in re funding US shale-oil producers will restrain oil supply growth. Monetary and fiscal stimulus will revive EM demand. These fundamentals will push inventories lower, further backwardating forward curves. Base…

Highlights Rising recession risk, shaky economic fundamentals, and absence of positive yielding assets motivate us to reexamine which assets can be counted on to protect a portfolio in the future. We analyze 10 safe havens on four different dimensions: consistency, versatility, efficiency, and…

Highlights The world remains mired in a manufacturing recession. This has historically not been bullish for pro-cyclical currencies. The velocity of money in the euro area will need to rise vis-à-vis the U.S. to confirm a bottom in EUR/USD. Watch the gold/silver ratio in timing this shift.…