The results of the Bank of England’s latest monthly Decision Maker Panel survey reduces pressure on policymakers to tighten further. Business expectations regarding output price inflation over the coming year fell from 5…
The September update of the J.P.Morgan Global Services PMI inched down from 51.1 to 50.8 in September. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline and brings the headline index to its lowest level since January. The New…
As expected, the US ISM PMI showed service sector activity slowing in September. The Services ISM declined from 54.5 to 53.6, broadly in line with expectations of 53.5. Although the level of the headline index indicates that…
The Caixin and NBS PMIs sent mixed signals about Chinese economic conditions in September. The NBS results surprised to the upside on the back of slightly greater-than-anticipated increases in both the manufacturing (+0.5 to…
In Section I, we note that the recent surge in long-maturity government bond yields is symptomatic of a sharp reduction in market expectations for a soft-landing economic outcome. This underscores that the US and other developed…
The message from the German Ifo is that although business sentiment continues to weaken, the pace of deterioration slowed in September and appears to be in the process of bottoming. The Business Climate Index’s marginal…
Flash PMIs suggests that the tailwind to services from pent-up demand during the pandemic is easing and that although the global manufacturing downturn is bottoming, it is not meaningfully reaccelerating. In the case of the US…
The US ISM delivered a positive signal about service sector activity in August. The headline index unexpectedly jumped by 1.8 points to a six-month high of 54.5, surprising expectations of a 0.2-point decline to 52.5. Importantly…
The final PMIs for August delivered a pessimistic update on service sector conditions in the Euro Area and China. The Eurozone services index was unexpectedly revised down from 48.3 to 47.9 – indicating a more pronounced…
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output,…