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Sectors

A Red Flag For Global Non-TMT Stocks
Global non-TMT stocks are at risk of a relapse given worsening conditions in global manufacturing and still hawkish policies from the Fed and ECB. According to the preliminary release, manufacturing PMI new orders for advanced economies fell below 45,…
Daily Insights
Hit, Miss, Moving Forward
Our US Equity Strategy service looks back at their performance for the first half of the year and assesses what they hit or missed so far and comments on the ongoing rally in the stock market. The team hit on the economic slowdown but missed on the…
Daily Insights
The Inflation Expectations Time-Bomb

The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and some investment implications. Plus: the yen is a rebound candidate, while Japanese equities are a reversal candidate.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Unwarranted Policy Tightening
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team posited that the bear market in Malaysian stocks will be prolonged. Disinflationary forces have taken hold of the Malaysian economy: money supply has plunged, bond yields are falling, and the yield…
Daily Insights
European Aerospace And Defense Stocks Are Hot
European aerospace and defense stocks are on the offense. Year-to-date, they are up 20% in absolute terms and 24% relative to their US counterparts, both in US dollar terms. The relative 12-month forward earnings suggest that this outperformance still has…
Daily Insights
Hit, Miss, Moving Forward

Momentum, high cash balances, FOMO, and expectations of soft landing drive the market higher. This rally may continue for a while, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying and will eventually derail the rally. It is too early to celebrate victory.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
On The Resilience Of DM Energy Stocks
Oil Prices have gone through a dramatic boom bust cycle over the past 18 months. After rising almost 80% in the first quarter of 2022 following the war in Ukraine, Brent has fallen all the way back towards $70/bbl – where it was at the start of last year. …
Daily Insights
Will Energy Stocks Continue Underperforming?
For the most part, the US equity rally has been rather narrow this year – concentrated among stocks that investors perceive will be the key winners of recent AI developments. In the first five months of the year, only three S&P 500 sectors were in the…
Daily Insights
Have Growth Stocks Overshot?
The 231bps rise in the 10-year Treasury yield last year weighed heavily on the relative performance of Growth stocks which lost 22.7% vis-à-vis the Value index in 2022. However, these dynamics have reversed this year with the rally in Growth stocks outpacing…
Daily Insights
Head Fake Or Real Deal Webcast: Poll Results And Client Questions

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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