Sectors

Europe credit flows are stabilizing, hence a major drag on the region’s growth will dissipate. What does this development imply for European equities?

The analysis of complexity is a massive competitive advantage in investing, and from today, clients will be able to monitor the complexities of the world’s 17 major investments on our webpage in real-time.

The equity rally extended into March as hard landing outcome was priced out. It has broadened, as money flowed into less over-loved pockets of the market. Our models signal that margins are about to stabilize, and earnings growth will accelerate as the year progresses. However, companies are raising prices again and the no-landing outcome and fewer than three rate cuts this year are increasingly likely.

The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.

MacroQuant downgraded equities from overweight to neutral on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model maintains a neg­ative view on stocks over a 12-month horizon.

We expand our risk/reward analysis of US investment grade corporate bonds to focus on the 44 industry groups included in the Bloomberg index.

For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point.

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

GAI is a powerful force that will revolutionize the global economy and we are sold on this long-term investment theme. To partake in the upward momentum, we recommend a nuanced approach. The GAI infrastructure cohort is now overbought - there should be a better entry point. The models and applications companies and early adopters are less of a crowded trade and offer more opportunities.

A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.