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Sectors

No Near-Term Fiscal Response In Sight Despite Chinese Malaise…
Keep An Eye On World Shipping Costs…
The Sahm Rule Is Not A Leading Indicator For The Economy…
Cyclical Investors Should Fade The Relief Rally…

The decision by GeoMacro team on July 2 to short USDJPY and underweight equities has proven to be prescient. We still do not like the market setup from here on out. A recession would, obviously, be negative for risk assets. But even if investors avoid that scenario, the transition from cash- to leverage-driven growth is unlikely without a significant Fed rate-cutting cycle.

Banks Tightened Credit Card Lending Standards In Q2…
The Case For Overweighting The US, Even Now…
Rate Cuts Won't Ensure A Soft Landing…
Mid-Cap Banks Dodge Another CRE Bullet…
Consumer Credit Increases The Most In Three Months…